The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) agents is transforming the way people book travel, with Instinct, a nimble and ambient agent, becoming a breakout surprise in the industry. In a recent interview, Noah Shinn, founder of Instinct, disclosed that the company has already crossed $1 billion in annualized transaction volume, with a growth rate of 10% day-over-day and zero marketing spend.
The majority of this transaction volume, 50%, comes from travel alone, which translates to $500 million in travel sales flowing through text prompts and voice notes. This rapid success in travel suggests that a growing number of travelers are delegating travel planning and potential purchases to a pure chat interface that lives inside their everyday messaging channels.
Trust and Execution
Glenn Fogel, CEO of Booking Holdings, has argued that while generative AI and autonomous agents excel at search and recommendation, trust and execution remain the true challenges separating an AI interface from an actual travel platform. Instinct claims to have cracked the trust challenge through a smart behavioral mechanism, relying on gradual data sharing and escalating utility that compounds over time.
This approach starts with low friction, establishing a gradual, user-directed pace with early lightweight interactions limited to simple text queries or basic calendar scheduling. Trust is earned in small increments, with 40% of users voluntarily granting the agent direct access to a personal credit card after observing three weeks of flawless, low-risk execution.
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Once the agent secures the user’s payment details, Instinct’s user retention leaps to 80%. The moment an agent becomes the trusted custodian of a traveler’s wallet, a consumer has no real reason to switch back to the traditional booking funnel as long as the purchasing experience remains flawless.
The Business Model
Instinct’s founder, Noah Shinn, explains that the company’s business model is based on a take-rate approach, where they charge merchants on the other side of the counter, rather than the user. This approach is designed to preserve pure user alignment and has been signaled as an identical economic roadmap for Meta’s personal agent, Muse, by Mark Zuckerberg.
All roads seem to lead to the same destination: AI agents are transforming into high-intent transaction networks, monetizing the checkout itself and charging a distribution fee to suppliers and travel intermediaries in exchange for delivering verified, zero-friction bookings. The transition to agentic travel will not happen overnight, but travel brands must continue serving human travelers while re-engineering their backend pipes and forging commercial alliances with AI gatekeepers.
The balancing act between human browsers and autonomous agents will be a significant challenge, as travel brands must serve both human travelers who still find comfort in browsing visual interfaces and the growing volume driven by autonomous agents. For now, Instinct continues to grow, with its 10% day-over-day growth rate, making it a significant player in the travel industry.